Jordan Addison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jordan Addison

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-145/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The model projects Jordan Addison to earn 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.
While Jordan Addison has earned 15.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Minnesota's offense in this week's game at 23.5%.
Jordan Addison has put up a monstrous 74.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game.
Jordan Addison is positioned as one of the worst wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Packers defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus WRs this year.
The Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.