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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-510).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -540 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -510.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line in this game (15.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played).

Jonnu Smith's 86.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 81.3% rate.

Jonnu Smith ranks in the 75th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.20 per game.

The Browns defense has given up the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.60 per game this year.

This year, the daunting Browns run defense has conceded a paltry 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (46.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.4 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers this year (only 48.8 per game on average).

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