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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+415/-590).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -590.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

With an impressive 19.4% Red Zone Target% (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.

When it comes to air yards, Jonnu Smith grades out in the towering 83rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 28.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 4th-fewest receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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