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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-830).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -830.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
  • This year, the poor Ravens pass defense has surrendered a massive 79.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 64.3 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (just 51.1 per game on average).
  • After averaging 32.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has significantly declined this season, now sitting at 17.0 per game.
  • Jonnu Smith's 26.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 39.7.
  • Jonnu Smith's 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 81.3% mark.

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