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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+147/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • In this week's game, Jonnu Smith is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 50.0 plays per game.
  • Jonnu Smith's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 39.7.
  • Jonnu Smith's 2.7 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a substantial diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 5.2 mark.
  • Jonnu Smith's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 81.3% to 73.3%.

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