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Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.

This year, the feeble Packers pass defense has conceded a colossal 84.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.

Jonnu Smith's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.

Jonnu Smith's receiving talent has tailed off this year, notching just 2.9 adjusted catches vs 5.2 last year.

Jonnu Smith's 76.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 81.3% rate.

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

Jonnu Smith ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 8