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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+112/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The model projects Jonnu Smith to accrue 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Jonnu Smith's 85.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.3% figure.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's collection of LBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.
  • Jonnu Smith's 25.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.
  • The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Jonnu Smith's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a significant diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 5.2 rate.

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