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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+121/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

This week, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets.

Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

Jonnu Smith's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating a mere 3.0 adjusted catches compared to 5.2 last year.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed a measly 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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