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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
  • Jonnu Smith has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this season (11.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.6%).
  • Jonnu Smith's pass-catching performance worsened this season, averaging a measly 2.1 adjusted receptions compared to 5.2 last season.
  • Jonnu Smith's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.3% to 71.1%.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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