My Account Log Out
 
 
Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -195 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • In this contest, Jonnu Smith is projected by the model to place in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Steelers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • Jonnu Smith's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 39.7.
  • Jonnu Smith's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 2.5 adjusted receptions compared to 5.2 last year.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™