Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.0 plays per game.
In this contest, Jonnu Smith is projected by the projections to rank in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Jonnu Smith has been more heavily featured in his offense's passing offense.
Jonnu Smith's pass-catching performance improved this season, compiling 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 2.2 last season.
Jonnu Smith's 79.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 71.1% rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.

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