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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Jonnu Smith's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 68.7%.
  • The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.

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