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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to garner 4.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals defense has been gouged for a monstrous 86.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the worst in the league.
  • This year, the deficient Bengals defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a massive 9.49 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 50.2 per game on average).
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.
  • After totaling 32.0 air yards per game last year, Jonnu Smith has produced significantly less this year, currently sitting at 18.0 per game.
  • Jonnu Smith's 27.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 39.7.

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