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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+111/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Jonnu Smith's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.0% to 72.5%.

Jonnu Smith's ability to pick up extra yardage has been refined this year, notching 9.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 7.32 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) to TEs this year.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 5.88 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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