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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-400/+325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +325.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The leading projections forecast Jonathan Taylor to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone in this game (10.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Jonathan Taylor's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 56.7% to 92.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is implied by the Colts being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.1% red zone run rate.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a measly 54.1 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

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