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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-156/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (11.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
  • The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 56.7% to 90.9%.
  • Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 80th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.14 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (50.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Colts.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.09 seconds per play.
  • Jonathan Taylor has garnered 69.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
  • Jonathan Taylor has accumulated a measly -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 14th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to RBs (100th percentile).

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