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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-174/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

Jonathan Taylor's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 56.7% to 88.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Colts to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.5% red zone run rate.

Jonathan Taylor has received 63.6% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.

In regards to air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in just the 14th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling just -2.0 per game.

With an outstanding ratio of 0.75 rushing touchdowns per game (98th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places among the top rushing TD-scorers in the NFL this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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