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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-164/+142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -164.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Philip Rivers.
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -4-point underdog this week.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (40.3 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.
  • The Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line in this week's contest (85.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in just the 15th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.
  • Jonathan Taylor has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (100th percentile).

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