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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-184/+162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +164 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line in this contest (10.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.1% in games he has played).
  • The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a measly 54.9 per game on average).
  • Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a more important option in his team's run game near the end zone this week (90.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.0% in games he has played).

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