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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-171).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -171.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 32nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

The Colts rank as the 8th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.70 seconds per play.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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