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Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-176/+146).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +146.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.With an extraordinary 61.8% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) last year, Jonathan Taylor has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to garner 2.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Miami's LB corps has been terrible last year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.Jonathan Taylor is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing just 56.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 3rd percentile.The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74%) versus running backs last year (74.0%).
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