Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+111/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.70 seconds per play.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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