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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • With an extraordinary 70.1% Route Participation% (96th percentile) this year, Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.
  • The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to garner 2.9 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 55.7% pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a measly 54.9 per game on average).
  • Jonathan Taylor has put up a paltry -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 17th percentile among running backs.
  • Jonathan Taylor's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.33 figure last year.

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