Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Jonathan Taylor has accrued a mere -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 9th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jonathan Taylor has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).
Jonathan Taylor's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.5% to 77.1%.
Jonathan Taylor's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating just 3.72 yards-per-target vs a 6.12 rate last season.

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