Johnny Mundt Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Johnny Mundt

NFL · Player Props

Johnny Mundt

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2025

Updated Nov 9, 2025 9:22 PM EST

Analysis

Johnny Mundt Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+156/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The Jaguars have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
While Johnny Mundt has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Jacksonville's pass game this week at 10.0%.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a meager 0.6 adjusted catches per game (6th percentile) this year, Johnny Mundt rates among the worst pass-catching TEs in the league.
Johnny Mundt's 44.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 76.4% mark.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Houston's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 7th-best in the league.

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