Johnny Mundt Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Johnny Mundt

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Johnny Mundt Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-101/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Johnny Mundt has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this year (7.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (0.5%).
Johnny Mundt has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing a stellar 87.5% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 35.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to tight ends since the start of last season (62.0%).