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John Metchie III

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+560/-690).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -640 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -690.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13-point underdogs.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.
  • The projections expect John Metchie III to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line in this contest (21.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
  • This year, the deficient New England Patriots defense has conceded a colossal 1.07 receiving TDs per game to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • John Metchie III has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).

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