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John Metchie III

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets

 
 
 
John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-590).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -590.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Brady Cook.
  • This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect John Metchie III to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (21.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.8% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the least pass-focused team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.2% pass rate.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.6 per game) this year.
  • John Metchie III has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
  • The New York offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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