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John Metchie III

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

 
 
 
John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -640 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Brady Cook.
  • This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (40.2 per game) this year.
  • The predictive model expects John Metchie III to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this game (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the least pass-heavy team in the league (54.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jets.
  • The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • After totaling 24.0 air yards per game last season, John Metchie III has seen a big decline this season, currently sitting at 14.0 per game.
  • The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.1%) to WRs this year (61.1%).
  • The Jaguars linebackers rank as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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