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John Metchie III

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-450).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -425 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -450.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
  • While John Metchie III has garnered 6.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New York's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 22.9%.
  • John Metchie III's 79.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 65.4% rate.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.0% Adjusted Completion%).
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 7th-best in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jets to pass on 52.5% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Dolphins, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • After averaging 24.0 air yards per game last season, John Metchie III has gotten worse this season, now pacing 11.0 per game.

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