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John Metchie III

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -375 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 133.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • While John Metchie III has accounted for 3.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in New York's passing attack near the end zone this week at 21.0%.
  • John Metchie III's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 65.4% to 94.4%.
  • John Metchie III ranks in the 75th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.33 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 50.2% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Falcons defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • John Metchie III has notched far fewer air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).
  • John Metchie III's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 19.8.
  • The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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