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John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

John Metchie III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-2400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.

While John Metchie III has earned 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New York's pass game near the end zone in this week's game at 5.9%.

This year, the weak New England Patriots defense has given up a staggering 1.30 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

This year, the formidable Patriots run defense has yielded a meager 0.30 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the best rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.

After totaling 24.0 air yards per game last season, John Metchie III has posted significant losses this season, currently sitting at 1.0 per game.

John Metchie III's 4.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 19.8.

The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

More John Metchie III Player Props

John Metchie III TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

John Metchie III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11