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John Metchie III
NFL · Player Props
John Metchie III
WR · New York Jets
Receiving Yards
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2025 Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC
NFL Props John Metchie III Receiving Yards

John Metchie III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -111.

Favors Over
  • The Jets may throw the ball less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to start backup QB Brady Cook.
  • This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Jets, who are big -13-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this week's game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.3% in games he has played).
  • John Metchie III's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.4% to 69.4%.
  • The Bills safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.
Favors Under
  • Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets offensive blueprint to skew 9.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • Right now, the least pass-heavy team in the league (54.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Jets.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • After totaling 24.0 air yards per game last year, John Metchie III has produced significantly fewer this year, currently pacing 18.0 per game.
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