John Metchie III Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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John Metchie III

NFL · Player Props

John Metchie III

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

John Metchie III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to start backup QB Brady Cook.
This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Jets, who are big -13-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this week's game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.3% in games he has played).
John Metchie III's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.4% to 69.4%.
The Bills safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets offensive blueprint to skew 9.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
Right now, the least pass-heavy team in the league (54.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Jets.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
After totaling 24.0 air yards per game last year, John Metchie III has produced significantly fewer this year, currently pacing 18.0 per game.

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