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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1450/-1700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the NFL (42.0 per game) this year.
  • This year, the fierce Seahawks run defense has surrendered a mere 0.29 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Seattle defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
  • The Commanders have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
  • John Bates has posted a measly 2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 24th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • John Bates places in just the 20th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a weak 3.3 mark this year.

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