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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1500/-1850).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1450 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1850.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Josh Johnson.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 132.1 total plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • John Bates's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 70.2% to 74.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Commanders.
  • The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (just 54.5 per game on average).
  • With a feeble 2.1% Red Zone Target Share (24th percentile) this year, John Bates has been among the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.
  • John Bates grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
  • This year, the weak Dallas Cowboys run defense has surrendered a monstrous 1.33 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.

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