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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-1200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Commanders, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
  • While John Bates has earned 2.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Washington's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest at 8.2%.
  • John Bates's 81.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 70.2% figure.
  • The Eagles safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (48.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
  • John Bates ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
  • This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a puny 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in football.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.21 per game this year.

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