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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -900.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  • While John Bates has earned 2.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Washington's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 10.3%.
  • John Bates's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 70.2% to 79.8%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 29.34 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
  • John Bates has accumulated a feeble 3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile among TEs.

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