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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1600/-1650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -4300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1650.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  • The Commanders are a 6-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • John Bates's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 70.2% to 74.6%.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.73 per game) against the Broncos defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 53.9 plays per game.
  • John Bates does not have any receiving TDs this year.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.4%) versus TEs this year (66.4%).
  • The Broncos safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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