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John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+920/-1100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

John Bates's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 70.2% to 74.5%.

This year, the deficient Dolphins defense has surrendered a staggering 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-worst rate in football.

The Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.70 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

More John Bates Player Props

John Bates TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11