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John Bates

John Bates Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1400/-2400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
  • The Detroit Lions linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • With a lousy ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), John Bates has been among the weakest receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends this year.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70%) vs. tight ends this year (70.0%).

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