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John Bates

John Bates Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
John Bates Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-182/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Commanders.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 131.3 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in football.
  • This year, the shaky Cowboys pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 90.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Commanders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
  • John Bates's 1.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in football: 15th percentile for TEs.
  • John Bates is positioned as one of the weakest pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.8 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 3rd percentile among TEs.

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