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John Bates

John Bates Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
John Bates Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to run the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Bears pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) to TEs this year (85.6%).
  • The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.2 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • John Bates's 4.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks among the worst in the league: 21st percentile for tight ends.

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