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John Bates

John Bates Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
John Bates Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -192.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  • The model projects John Bates to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game in this game (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).
  • John Bates's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 70.2% to 79.8%.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New York's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 29.34 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

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