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John Bates

John Bates Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
John Bates Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • John Bates's 79.9% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a significant improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 70.2% mark.
  • The Vikings safeties project as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Commanders have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

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