|
|
John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-109).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.John Bates's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 70.2% to 74.5%.This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a staggering 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-worst in the NFL.This year, the feeble Dolphins pass defense has allowed a whopping 84.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-worst rate in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.6% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.The model projects the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Commanders have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.1 plays per game.Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.John Bates comes in as one of the worst pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a mere 12.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
