John Bates Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
John Bates's 85.7% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 67.0% rate.
John Bates's pass-catching efficiency has gotten a boost this year, notching 8.03 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 5.03 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
With a bad 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, John Bates places as one of the bottom TE receiving threats in football.
This year, the tough Bears pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a meager 3.2 YAC.