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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-104/-127).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -127.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to total 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most yards in the league (130 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (70.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.0% in games he has played).The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
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