Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 13.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (54.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 95 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

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