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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-113/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.

Joe Mixon has received 80.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Opposing squads have run for the most TDs in the NFL (1.71 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.

The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 37.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated some form of misdirection on a measly 38.8% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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