Joe Mixon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +117 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has earned 82.2% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has rushed for 0.57 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in football among running backs (93rd percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the most touchdowns in the league (1.63 per game) versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 38.9% red zone run rate.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.